The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Is Interest Rate-Focused Inflation Targeting Valid?
Keun Yeong Lee (Sungkyunkwan University)Year 2020Vol. 68No. 2
AbstractThis paper analyzes the reaction of industrial production and prices to policyrate adjustment by estimating the local projection model. Empirical resultsshow that the response of consumer prices to the shock of rising policy ratesis not clear, while the response of industrial production is obviously negative.These results do not change significantly when increasing control variables ortime lags, and subdividing the entire analysis period from 2000 to the latestthrough sample movement such as 120 and 180 months. In addition, whenestimating the VAR model that considers foreign variables as exogenousvariables, the impact of the call rate increase on consumer prices andindustrial production is similar to that of the local projection model. In short,the overall empirical results of this study suggest that it is not easy to findevidence that the inflation targeting, which uses interest rates as its operationalinstrument, is valid since the 2000s.