The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Presidential Address : Korea's Long-term Benchmark Fertility Rate from The Perspective of Family Eco
Inchul Kim(SungKyunKwan University)Year 2014Vol. 62No. 1
Abstract
With a fertility rate of 1.18 in 2013, Korea ranks the lowest among themembers of OECD. Korea is now experiencing a trend of an aging population.If this trend continues for some time, Korea may not be able to survive on thisplanet.This paper attempts to demonstrate that Korea’s long-term benchmarkfertility rate is two children and argues using the results of the UN’s recentpopulation study that Korea’s actual fertility converges to its long-termbenchmark rate of 2.0 in the next 35 years towards 2050. Also this paperargues that the actual path of fertility movement depends on both thegovernment’s child-support policy and the relative strength of the income effectover the price effect of woman’s wage income.