The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Macroeconomic Determinants of Housing and Housing Lease Prices' Dynamics in Korea
Yun-Yeong Kim (Dankook University)Year 2012Vol. 60No. 3
Abstract
The paper analyzes how the changes of macro-economic variables includinginterest rate, price level, stock price, industrial production and foreignexchange rate dynamically affect to the Korean housing price/housing leaseprice changes. For this, we considered the leverage effect of housing leaseduring the purchasing of housing. Then we conducted the empirical analysesfor the four separate periods; before the Asian financial crisis, after Asianfinancial crisis, after global financial crisis and after Asian financial crisis until2011. According to the OLS and TSLS estimation results for the housing pricereturn, the interest rate showed negative effect during before and after Asianfinancial crisis; however the OLS and TSLS estimation results showed thepositive effect for the housing lease price change during the same period.Further inflation showed the statistical significance for housing price andhousing lease price after global financial crisis, which probably reflects globalquantitative easiness of monetary policy. Finally, in a VAR model, we analyzedthe dynamic impulse effects of macroeconomic variables to the co-integrationdisequilibrium error of housing price/housing lease price. According to theimpulse-response analyses, these disequilibrium errors were significantlyaffected by the inflation, foreign exchange rate and stock price.