The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Predicting the Future Disease Burden and Medical Cost: Using National Health Insurance Big Data
Sok Chul Hong (Seoul National University), Sangyon Lee (Seoul National University), Sehyun Kim (Seoul National University) and Sunghyun Jun (Seoul National University)Year 2023Vol. 71No. 2
AbstractThe aging population and the rising prevalence of chronic diseases have led to a surge in disease burden and medical expenses, prompting an urgent need for proactive healthcare, while the evaluation of medical and economic feasibility remains insufficient. This study proposes a methodology for evaluating the medical and economic feasibility of healthcare using National Health Insurance Service database and big data analysis techniques. A disease burden index, which considers the severity of various diseases, is proposed, and a 10-year cumulative index is estimated using health checkup indicators. The impact of healthcare on medical cost reduction is illustrated through the alleviation of the disease burden index with an example of a healthcare program. Finally, the importance of health care is emphasized from the perspective of health care policy and financial sustainability of NHIS.