Publication
The Korean Economic Forum
Understanding the Sources of High Inflation in Korea after COVID-19: Evidence from Disaggregate CPI Inflation Rates by Expenditure Category
Dukpa Kim (Korea University) and Yunjong Eo (Korea University)Year 2022Vol. 15No. 2
Abstract
Inflation has surged dramatically after COVID-19 due to domestic and foreign
supply and demand shocks that occurred throughout the period of economic
recovery. Based on Stock and Watson’s (2016) multivariate unobserved
components model, we estimate trend inflation using disaggregate consumer
price indices by expenditure category and investigate the sources of the recent
inflation hike. Our empirical findings show that the sub-categories of
transportation, restaurants/hotels, food/non-alcoholic beverages sectors, which
are directly tied to global inflation pressure, have been primarily responsible for
the recent increase in CPI trend inflation. As of the first quarter of 2022, the
specific sectoral high inflation has not yet spread to other sectors, but
survey-based inflation expectations have recently risen along with our estimate of
trend inflation. We also discuss the policy implications of our findings about
stabilizing inflation.