Publication
The Korean Economic Forum
Estimation of the Neutral Real Interest Rate with Household Credit Gap
Hyoung-Seok Oh (Bank of Korea) and Jiuk Choi (Citibank Korea Inc.)Year 2023Vol. 15No. 4
Abstract
The Laubach and Williams(2003) model has been widely used to estimate the
neutral real interest rate(r*). However, crucial limitations have been
continuously raised since the model cannot reflect the impact of financial
conditions on the real economy. In Korea, household credit has increased
significantly since the second half of 2014. Thus many economists worry about
the possibility that the high level of household credit in Korea appears to
contract private consumption and negatively affect long-term growth.
Considering household credit conditions in Korea, this paper analyzed the
neutral real interest rate using a model that explicitly reflects the effect of the
household credit cycle on growth. We find that the neutral real interest rate level
during the household credit cycle expansion period is higher than that estimated
from the original Laubach and Williams(2003) method. Accordingly, the neutral
real interest rate and monetary policy stance under excessive credit growth
should be carefully estimated and assessed.