Publication
The Korean Economic Forum
Regional Diffusion and Structural Changes in Apartment Price Fluctuations
Hongjai Rhee (Ajou University)Year 2023Vol. 16No. 3
Abstract
This study analyzes the regional diffusion pattern of fluctuations in domestic
apartment transaction prices from 2010 to 2022. The distinctive features of this
research compared to previous literature are as follows: (1) The sample is
divided into two periods, and possible structural changes in the process of how
apartment transaction price fluctuations in the Seoul area, particularly by
Gangnam-gu, spread to other regions are analyzed. (2) To mitigate the issues
of index integration and multicollinearity, the nationwide apartment market is
divided into 19 regional markets based on the correlation of price indices time
series and geographical proximity. Then, representative time series for each
region are extracted to estimate the VAR (Vector Autoregression) models. The
main results indicate that before 2016, the shock of Gangnam-gu’s price index
had an overwhelmingly high, widespread, and statistically significant effect on
other time series nationwide. However, after 2016, the magnitude and scope of
this effect rapidly decreased. These findings support the hypothesis of structural
changes, and this study establishes and interprets the hypothesis within an
integrated framework of inter-regional substitutability.