The Korean Economic Forum
An Analysis of the Interrelationships between House Price, Jeonse Price, and Household Debt
Han Ik Jang (IBK Economic Research Institute) and Byeng Kuk Kim (Housing Research Institute)Year 2024Vol. 17No. 2
Abstract
This study dynamically examined the interrelationship between housing prices, jeonse prices, and household debt using the TVP-VARX model. According to the results of the empirical analysis, an increase in mortgage interest rates leads to a decrease in mortgage loans, a decrease in housing prices and jeonse prices. Increased mortgage loans cause rising housing prices and falling jeonse prices. The rise in housing prices leads to an increase in mortgage loans and an increase in jeonse prices, while the rise in jeonse prices also results in an increase in mortgage loans and an increase in housing prices. Looking at the combined shock, the response of mortgage loans, housing prices, and jeonse prices varies depending on the combined conditions. In the case of mortgage loans, interest rates for mortgage loans, jeonse prices for housing prices, and housing prices for jeonse prices are important factors that determine the direction of the response. Depending on the situation in the housing market, housing market prices may not rise even if mortgage loans increase. Recent changes in market interest rates have not been reflected in mortgage rates, which are acting as upward pressure on mortgage loans, housing prices, and jeonse prices.