The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Is There a Stochastic Non-Fundamental Trend in Korean Housing Price? Inference under Error Correctio
Yun-Yeong Kim(Dankook University)Year 2013Vol. 61No. 4
Abstract
In this paper, we test and estimate of the stochastic non-fundamental trend in Korean housing market. For this, following Kim(2011), we exploit that the long-run equilibrium housing price may be decomposed into fundamental and stochastic non-fundamental trends (i.e., the sum of dividend innovations and that of innovations that are orthogonal to fundamental macro-innovations,respectively) by using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and projections. In this VAR construction, there is an error correction mechanism through which housing prices converge to their long-run equilibrium, which reflects the stated stochastic non-fundamental trend. We may test the existence of non-fundamental trend via a standard t-test and conduct a dynamic analyses using housing price, fundamental and non-fundamental trends in a VAR model. The results of the analysis of monthly data from the Korea during after Asian financial crisis, indicate that fluctuations in housing prices during that period can be explained mainly by the non-fundamental trend, not by the stochastic fundamental trend.