Publication
The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Random Forest for Stationary Time Series: The Case of Forecasting Inflation in Korea
Heejoon Han (Sungkyunkwan University)Year 2023Vol. 71No. 3
Abstract
This paper first investigates whether adopting the stationary bootstrap or the
moving block bootstrap, instead of the usual independent bootstrap, in the
random forest method improves forecasting of stationary time series. It is
shown that the block bootstrap procedures adopted in the random forest method
do not make any statistically significant improvement in Korean or US inflation
forecasting. Secondly, we consider inflation forecasting in Korea using 93
macroeconomic/financial variables and various machine learning methods. The
samples are from September 2004 to March 2022. Comparing total 13 models,
one model outperforms the rest models for most forecast horizons, which is a
simplified method of the model proposed by Kim and Han (2022). The method
consists of the following two steps: 1) Select important variables based on the
Boruta algorithm, 2) Using only those selected variables, implement the
random forest and produce a forecast. The tests by Giacomini and White (2006)
and Hansen et al. (2009) show that the model provides significantly better
forecasts for most forest horizons. In particular, the Boruta algorithm selected
total economically active population, total employed persons, BSI, house price
as important variables for Korean inflation forecasting.