The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
A Study on Dating the Reference Cycle Using Components of Composite Coincident Index
Keun Yeong Lee (Sungkyunkwan University)Year 2024Vol. 72No. 3
Abstract
This study estimates the peaks and troughs of the reference cycle dates in Korea from January 2003 to December 2022 using the seven components of the coincident index and the multiple change-point model of Camacho et al.(2002). The estimation results show that the number of reference cycle dates estimated using the multiple change-point model (date-then-average approach) during the analysis period is four, which is the same as the number of reference cycle dates announced by Statistics Korea (average-then-date approach). However, when comparing the coincidence of the peaks and troughs, it is found that the peaks and troughs of the second cycle of the analysis period are similar, while the peaks and troughs of the third and fourth cycles are different. This large discrepancy in the timing of the turning points is likely due to differences in the two approaches, anomalous variables such as value of construction completed, and differences in trend estimation methods.