Publication
The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
A Study on Local Fiscal Multiplier of Local Transfers: Focusing on Metropolitan Governments
Min-Gyu Lee (Hanyang University)Year 2024Vol. 72No. 4
Abstract
This study quantitatively examines the impact of local transfers by estimating the local fiscal multiplier. The findings show that the multiplier effect is generally close to zero or negative, particularly during regional economic recessions. Decomposing the effects, earmarked grants have a negative impact within the region but positive outside, while general grants show the opposite pattern. These results remain consistent even when accounting for business cycles. Additionally, medium- to long-term analysis using panel-local projection reveals that local transfers do not significantly boost regional economic variables, while fiscal decentralization also yields limited positive effects.