The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Estimating the Taylor Rule using Sectoral Inflation
Hyundo Joo (Bank of Korea)Year 2024Vol. 72No. 4
Abstract
This paper estimates the central bank’s Taylor rule using data from the period after the adoption of the inflation targeting regime up to the most recent period. The key differences from existing studies are as follows: First, the analysis period is divided into three sub-periods to consider changes in the monetary policy operating framework. Second, the Taylor rule is estimated not only using CPI inflation, but also utilizing sectoral inflation rates. This allows us to examine the extent to which the central bank has been placing weights on sectoral inflation rates. The analysis results show that the central bank’s policy responses have varied depending on the monetary policy operating framework. In the early period, the central bank responded more actively to the output gap than the inflation gap. However, in the medium and later periods, the central bank paid closer attention to the inflation gap. The consideration of sectoral inflation also differed across the sub-periods. The results remained consistent across various robustness checks. Additionally, the analysis identified an asymmetry in the central bank’s policy responses when inflation pressures were positive versus negative. These findings are expected to contribute to a better understanding of the central bank’s monetary policy behavior.