Recent studies suggest that order flow plays an important role in FXdetermination and out of sample forecasting. In line with this trend, we useKRW/USD’ order flow for forecasting its daily variation. We make twocontributions. First, we find JPY/USD, a public information proxy variable,provides in-sample explanation as well as out-sample forecasting power, whichis very different from the empirical evidence found on the internationalcurrency. Second, we find evidence that order flow can forecast KRW/USD exchange rates, although our results show statistically insignificantimprovement of forecasting power compared with the random walk model.However, the forecasting power improvement is not negligible, which givesconsiderable practical usage to market practitioners.
Publication
The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Out of Sample Forecasting for KRW/USD Using Order Flows
Chae-Shick ChungYear 2009Vol. 57No. 2
Abstract