The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Does the Non-monetary Shock Affect the Long-term Expectations of the Won-dollar Exchange Rate Even Under the Monetary Approach Model?
Yun-Yeong Kim (Dankook University)Year 2019Vol. 67No. 4
This paper attempts to empirically examine whether the trend of shocks thatis independent with the shocks of monetary approach model variables canaffect the long-term expectations of the won-dollar exchange rate. For thispurpose, we show, employing Kim(2018)’s approach, that a non-monetaryshock may affect the long run expectation of exchange rate when a trend ofnon-monetary shocks is included in the variables of monetary approach model,even if the exchange rate is cointegrated with the monetary variables. We alsotest the existence of non-fundamental trends and estimate it through theBeveridge-Nelson decomposition and the projection of the monetary modelvariable shocks to the exchange rate shocks. According to empirical analysison the data after the Asian financial crisis, the null hypothesis that there is nota non-fundamental shock trend in the won-dollar exchange rate was rejectedat 5% level in all models. In addition, the results of the generalized impulseresponse analysis showed that the non-fundamental trend shock showed agreater exchange rate response than the fundamental trend shock. The resultsof variance decomposition also showed that the non-fundamental trendoverwhelmed the fundamental trend in the variance ratio of the exchange rate’schange. These results suggest that shock factors other than monetary modelvariables are very important in long-term determinants of the won-dollarexchange rate.