Publication
The Korean Economic Forum
Evaluation of Recent Policy Stance and Issues in Korea's Monetary Policy
Inseok Shin (Chung-Ang University) and Hyunju Kang (Korea Capital Market Institute)Year 2022Vol. 14No. 4
Abstract
Amid the possibility of further hikes following the Bank of Korea’s Base Rate
hike in August 2021, this study evaluates Korea’s monetary policy stance and
discusses related issues. Estimating a canonical quasi-structure model based on
the Bank of Korea’s growth and price outlook, it is found to be consistent with
the rationale for changing the policy stance of the Bank of Korea, with the GDP
gap converted to positive in the future and real policy rate below the real neutral
interest rate. However, as the potential growth rate continues to decline,
interpreting the economic situation through the GDP gap and deriving policy
directions involves the risk of error. In addition, as there are concerns about
reducing policy capacity due to falling nominal neutral interest rates, raising
trend inflation is a key task for monetary authorities but its necessity is not
properly recognized. Finally, although financial stability has emerged as an
urgent policy task for monetary authorities, it is necessary to take a careful
approach to the adequacy of interest rate adjustments as a means of stabilizing
housing prices and household debt.