The Korean Journal of Economic Studies
Analysis of the Convergence Hypothesis in Asian Developing Countries Using a Panel Stationarity and
Ji Uk KimYear 2010Vol. 58No. 2
Abstract
This research applies an panel data stationarity and stochastic convergence test developed by carrion-i-Silvestre et al.(2005), which has the advantage of considering multiple structural breaks and the presence of cross-section dependence in order to re-investigate the hypothesis that catch-up rates(the ratio of the country’s level of per capita GDP to USA per capita GDP) stochastically converge for 13 Asian countries from 1960-2007. Panel unit root test without breaks suggests that catch-up rates contain a unit root. However, The evidence indicates that the panel data set of catch-up rates is stationary after the structural breaks and cross-section dependence are introduced into the model. Due to stationarity indicating that the impact of reduction in catch-up rates or the reconditioning policy is temporary, the series will revert to the leading country in the long term. We find that structural breaks in the 1970s and 1990s are associated with time periods of oil shocks and Asian foreign exchange crisis, respectively. The break dates are reported such that four structural breaks are significant in three countries - Indonesia, Korea, and Malaysia, while only one structural break is significant in two countries - China and Sri Lanka. We also investigate whether the growth rates of 13 Asian countries stochastically converged around the growth rate of the United States during the period 1960-2007. Using the panel cointegration tests of Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), we find evidence for convergence. Our tests allow for multiple structural breaks andcross-section dependence. Doing so is important for our tests because common shocks from global events impacted most of the countries, giving rise to cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks.